Monterrey Open: Garcia vs Vekic Tennis Prediction & Pick

TennisSection previews the 2023 Monterrey Open as Caroline Garcia takes on Donna Vekic in the final on Sunday, March 5, 2023.

What a cracking final we have in store. Top seed and tournament favorite Caroline Garcia faces the biggest test of the week when she takes on in-form Croat Donna Vekic. Who will clinch the Monterrey Open title on Sunday?

Caroline Garcia has not only lived up to the billing as the tournament favorite, but she has served notice that she is absolutely ready to profusely fight to win her first title of the season. Garcia hasn’t dropped a set in four matches and hasn’t given away more than four games in a set. The Frenchwoman has already been to a WTA final this year, losing to rising American star Alycia Parks in Lyon last month. Can she get over the line at the Monterrey Open when she battles in-form Donna Vekic who is enjoying a career renaissance in 2023?

Not long ago, we thought Donna Vekic’s career had run its course. And with injuries derailing her progress, a sad, meek retirement was on her mind. Fortunately for Vekic, she has maintained an excellent spell of good health in the last two seasons. The second half of last season was when everything began to click. Vekic famously made the quarterfinals or better in three WTA tournaments and reached the San Diego final as a qualifier beating Sakkari, Pliskova, Sabalenka, and Danielle Collins before bowing out at the hands of Iga Swiatek in three sets. Vekic has not been resting on her laurels in 2023. She has won 15 of her 17 matches going to the Monterrey Open final. Will she pick up her fourth career title at the expense of Caroline Garcia?

Donna Vekic leads Caroline Garcia 5-4 in their head-to-head, with the Croat winning their last duel at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. Garcia has been flawless in her run to the Monterrey Open final. She has only been broken once in four matches and served effortlessly against fourth-seed Elise Mertens who is a quality returner. Garcia is one of the few active players to win double-digit WTA titles. So Vekic’s task in hand is an almighty one. If Garcia continues to stack up such sizzling numbers behind her serve, Vekic will have enormous pressure on her own service games to stay in touch against the top seed. The Croatian, however, has the necessary firepower to trouble Garcia. She hits flat with an adequate injection of pace in her ground strokes. Garcia doesn’t enjoy these sorts of duels against the WTA’s biggest hitters. The likes of Bencic, Parks, and Madison Keys have all handed Garcia defeats in 2023. It could come down to subtle details and the player with the nerve to remain in control under pressure could clinch this. We reckon the Croatian star could pull off a surprise on Sunday, but we highly recommend taking the set handicap of +1.5 on Donna Vekic.