Rio Open: Alcaraz vs Norrie Tennis Prediction & Pick

TennisSection previews the 2023 Rio Open as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Cameron Norrie in the final on Sunday, February 26, 2023.

It is a rematch of the Buenos Aires final. Will Carlos Alcaraz successfully defend the Rio Open title? Or will Cameron Norrie make amends for his defeat in Argentina? It should be another gripping contest between the top two seeds at the tournament. Who will prevail?

Carlos Alcaraz made it eight wins on the trot to start his 2023 campaign, beating in-form Chilean Nicolas Jarry 6-7 7-5 6-0 in two hours and 43 minutes – the toughest test of his season so far. Jarry had won 10 straight sets right from qualifying at the Rio Open and made it 11 when he snatched the first set in a tiebreak, leaving Alcaraz with a mountain to climb. Having accounted for the upset win against Lorenzo Musetti, Jarry never wilted and went toe to toe with the young Spaniard deep into the second set. But once Alcaraz shifted through the gears, Jarry could not live with him. He broke to love to clinch the second set and went on a tear in the third as the match became physically unbearable for Jarry.

Cameron Norrie, meanwhile, battled in his very own three-setter against the Spanish clay-court specialist Bernabe Zapata Miralles to reach his third final of 2023. Norrie’s stronger first serve made the difference in a match of very few margins and which did not give any indication of a winner until the very last point. Norrie dug out a third-set tiebreak win, which was his 17th of the season – the most by any player this year. Can he avenge his Buenos Aires defeat to Carlos Alcaraz when they clash on Sunday at the Rio Open?

Carlos Alcaraz leads Cameron Norrie 4-1 in their head-to-head. The two clashed in the Buenos Aires final a week ago with Alcaraz winning in straight sets. Being the top two seeds at the tournament in Rio, we expected Alcaraz and Norrie to breeze through the draw. But that has not been the case. They have each at some point been required to summon their moxie to get through some tetchy and tense moments. I expect Norrie to keep things watertight. If his serve holds firm, he can pinch a set here. But Alcaraz’s athleticism and stoic resolve will shine in the end.