Dubai Championships: Rublev vs Zverev Tennis Prediction & Pick

TennisSection previews the 2023 Dubai Championships as Andrey Rublev takes on Alexander Zverev in the semifinal on Friday, March 3, 2023.

Defending champion Andrey Rublev will look to overturn his appalling 5-0 losing record against Alexander Zverev. with the German finding form at the 2023 Dubai Championships, Rublev’s task could get a tad harder. So who will prevail?

Andrey Rublev has grown into this tournament. He was a pedestrian for almost two sets in his second-round match. I say almost because Rublev turned around a 6-1 deficit in the second-set tiebreak against Davidovich Fokina and went on to win that match in three sets. It was just the tonic that Rublev needed to get his title defense up and running. He had already accounted for Filip Krajinovic a day earlier, but Rublev produced a quarterfinal win devoid of any drama on Thursday at the Dubai Championships. He was composed and assured from baseline as he cruised to a 6-3 7-6 win over Botic van de Zandschulp. Will he reach a second final at the expense of Alexander Zverev?

Alexander Zverev has won three matches in a row for the first time this season, beating Lorenzo Sonego 7-5 6-4 to reach the quarterfinal at the Dubai Championships. Zverev and Sonego had been serving impeccably throughout the week, but it was the German who held his nerve, saving all six break points in the match.

Alexander Zverev leads Andrey Rublev 5-0 in their head-to-head. And what is even more distressing if you’re a Rublev fan, he hasn’t even won a set in all five meetings. The Russian didn’t have the perfect start to the February tournaments, losing early in Rotterdam and Doha. But is on the quick courts of the Dubai Championships where Rublev has burst into life. Playing all three matches in the afternoon has aided his course with the balls traveling even faster. It is not a surprise that Zverev has also thrived in these conditions. For many years the Zverev serve was shaky and flimsy, often double-faulting in pressure moments. But the German’s serve has been a metronome in his game, and only double-faulted four times in total in three matches this week. As long as Zverev keeps that number at an all-time low, it is tough to see Rublev getting a look in. That creates additional pressure on Rublev’s service games. And with the Russian being very tight from the baseline this week, Zverev is rightly the slight favorite here.