Qatar Open: Keys vs Ostapenko Tennis Prediction & Pick

TennisSection previews the 2023 Qatar Open as Madison Keys takes on Jelena Ostapenko in the first round on Tuesday, February 14, 2023.

It’s a big-hitting contest in the offing as Madison Keys plays former finalist Jelena Ostapenko in a blockbuster opener at the Qatar Open. Who will prevail and advance into the second round?

Madison Keys will play for the first time since losing in the third round of the Australian Open to Victoria Azarenka. Keys is currently 7-1 for the season, but her failure to defend last year’s semifinal points in Melbourne means that she has dropped to No. 23 in the rankings ahead of her fourth career meeting against Jelena Ostapenko. She has played at the Qatar Open twice before this but has never advanced beyond the Round of 16.

Jelena Ostapenko, meanwhile, kicked off her Middle East swing at the Abu Dhabi Open last week, losing in the Round of 16 to Qinwen Zheng, although she looked eked out a very good win over Danielle Collins in the first round. The Latvian has started 2023 in immaculate form, highlighted by reaching the Australian Open quarterfinal for the first time. Can she catch Madison Keys cold in their blockbuster opener at the Qatar Open?

Madison Keys leads Jelena Ostapenko 3-1 in their head-to-head. They have played on hard courts just once before this, in Cincinnati, last season, and Keys won in straight sets. I’m leaning towards Ostapenko this time. She’s been playing with controlled aggression and that has translated to reasonable success in this early part of the season. Keys hasn’t played since the Australian Open and could be caught cold by a rampaging Ostapenko.